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Every year false forecasts by experts

A new Energy Outlook every year: The International Energy Agency (IEA) highlights developments in the various energy sources, such as wind power and photovoltaics, from the most current perspective.

Every year a new dark prognosis for photovoltaics comes up from the industry's point of view - sometimes even with a decline in the annual construction output. A comparison with the actual development reveals the true extent of the misjudgement.

Twitter Auke Hoekstra IEA PV Vorhersagen Beitrag

An explanation of the graph: The black arrow shows the actual increase in the worldwide annual installed photovoltaic capacity in gigawatt peak. The colored horizontal lines describe the forecast of the International Energy Agency for the respective year.

Dr. Gerhard Rimpler analyzes: "If photovoltaics were to stagnate at the current level of expansion, we could forget it as a technology for switching to renewable energy. It would take another 150 years, far too long". In fact, growth rates are regularly increasing by 15-20 % annually. For example, photovoltaics has now overtaken nuclear power, which has been stagnating for years.

It is questionable why the IEA was able to misjudge the technology of photovoltaics for over a ten-year period. Since one cannot assume that the experts are really so wrong, the following hypothesis remains: To slow down political decisions in favor of renewable energies.

It is also interesting to note that for the first time the "World Energy Outlook 2020" assumes future annual growth rates of 13 % for photovoltaics. After all, the trend towards exponential growth is now recognized or can no longer be ignored.

It is positive if countries like Austria pursue a clear political goal. The fact that it will then actually become reality and the electrical energy supply will be renewable by 2030 is a further step. Due to the price development of photovoltaics, now one of the cheapest energy technologies, this is also possible at low cost.

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